(Another extract from my email to IIT wingmates)
I did recommend Apple in late 80s,but will wait for a correction at current price of 120. This stock has gone up too soon too fast. I also believe that there will be
a market pull back before August. So, hold off on all your buying especially tech till then.
In fact in the current market condition, look for stock which are short candidates. I have been short in AMR - fuel and labor trouble. I think the
airline long term trend (2-3 yrs) is down to another round of financial distress. Keep an eye, but don't pull a trigger now if you are not short
yet. There might be short term upward momentum due to recent sector upgrade by some analysts.
About Apple stock - short term outlook (2-3 months) bearish medium and long term bullish to very bullish.
About Apple not having 3G, more than US consumers it is the providers who want 3G.
For US consumers:
- US market doesn't have many 3G applications.and I Phone version 1 is for US market only. I am guessing I Phone will have another version out before Christmas with 3G for the whole world.
- 3G consumes more power than GSM - a key factor for small cell phone batteries
For providers:
- 3g has low cost of handling call. I think it may be due to higher bandwidth per 3g band, the same reason why it is faster.
- Also, most US providers already have 3G systems up without as many users...their infrastructure is depreciating with little 3G revenue and it is they who are pushing for 3g phone so they can get value out of the 3G infrastructure.
It may not look so but it is ALMOST the same situation as empty hotel rooms or bistro seats as the 4G will arrive in 2-3 years whether they are able to get value out of 3G or not.
The juggling between different stakeholders (stock holder, consumer and employees) with focus on 3g strategy (of Tmobile, Cingular and Sprint) is
another post that I have in draft and my to do list :(.
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