GNBT on a tear!!!
One of my holding GNBT is having a great run. I came across this firm through Avian flu research that I did. Though, it is not directly involved with Avian flu. I liked their product - spray based insulin. I had read a lot about the technology when I was working at a boutique investment bank. I liked the concept as it is much more painless drug delivery method that needles. So, I added it to my portfolio at 0.94 on Nov 18th. At that time, it's flagship product Oral-Lyn(TM), oral insulin spray product, had been approved for commercial sale in Ecuador for the treatment of patients with Type-1 and Type-2 diabetes, and was in various stages of clinical trials around the world. There is always some theory why I buy stocks. The main reasons for the thinking were
1> Management looked motivated. They have good background, but motivation was the key. They seem to be putting all the right moves.
2> They already had a product which would be generating revenue. I didn't care if they wre first in the US market or third. With the kind of competition for spray based products, I was sure they would have marketing alliances with some big pharma distributor (That's what I call the big pharma companies)
3> They had an Avian flu play in the form of wholly owned subsidiary Antigen Express with it's avian flu vaccine program. I equated avian flu to oil. Any news or supply shock or demand spike increases the price of crude.
So, the story is expected revenue from Equador will inprove it's topline as well as provide more data for clinical trials. Management will get the drug approved in other countries including US (the biggest drug market) in time. Finaly there is Avian flu play as a an icing on the cake.
I was planning to get half out at 1.4 and rest out at 2.5-3 range. A 100% annual expected return, not bad a risky bet on a $50 million firm I am not the kind of person who can watch the market every minute due to my work. So, I put a trailing stop trigger at 1.4 and waited for the first move. and surely it came much earlier than expected. I got a price of 1.322 on Jan 23rd 2006. Then came a number of other good news. They had a positive pre-IND meeting with FDA for Avian flu and other meeting with Canadian and European trials. As of today it is 4.23 and my current trailing order sell price is 3.52. I have already made more than I expected and I am ready to catch any other upside that comes my way. I will make a value judgement in about a month whether I want to keep my trailing order or convert this for the long haul. This company is really showing promise and if they can deliver or one of the two potentials - Avian flu and Oral insulin- it will be a keeper.

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